The key feature of silver as an investment asset is the real value of silver. Silver is primarily a physical commodity. That makes it impossible for its value to fall to zero. Therefore, it also makes it a proper instrument for inflation protection.
Gold has similar qualities. But silver has a few differences from the most popular of the precious metals:
Traditionally, both silver and gold are considered "true" money. Both metals have an inverse correlation to the U.S. dollar. But in times of economic turmoil, the outlook for silver prices is negative. Investors seek shelter in gold with the Gold/silver ratio rising. Silver begins to overtake "its competitor" during periods of production recovery.
It is worth adding this asset to your portfolio for those who:
This precious metal is a good asset to diversify a large portfolio. However, it is improper for holding an emergency fund.
Investments in physical silver provide no passive income. As an alternative, you can consider buying stocks of mining companies, such as First Majestic Silver (AG).
These kinds of assets pay dividends. Besides, they are unlikely to suffer in the event of a crisis like the dot-com bubble.
The price of silver is largely determined by the balance of supply and demand. But market expectations of a recession are making serious adjustments. The best time to invest in this metal is during periods of economic growth.
The 2008 crisis was deflationary in nature. Silver was getting cheaper, as well as other assets. From the beginning of March to November its quotations fell by more than half. They fell to $9 per ounce.
-26.90%Between April and May, silver traded around an all-time high of $49. This short-term peak was due to expectations of high inflation rates. Concerns related to the downgrade of the US credit rating played an important role.
+55.73%Amid panic in March, the price fell to $11.77. But already by August, the silver market reached the maximum for 7 years. Quotes reached $29.14 per ounce. This was due to the growing demand for the metal amid falling supply. Because of the pandemic, 101 mines were closed. The volume of mining has decreased dramatically.
+47.44%Silver price demonstrates positive dynamics. There is every reason to believe that this situation will not change in the coming days. The current moment is proper for building up positions in the metal regardless of the investment horizon.
Silver price forecasting can be based on technical analysis. For this purpose, popular tools and indicators are used. For example:
The technical analysis tools listed are among the simplest for beginner investors. However, they can provide fairly reliable forecasts.
All technical analysis indicators share a common drawback: they only consider past data. As a result, some signals may turn out to be false. Fundamental factors and significant news can lead to abrupt changes in trends.
The data on popular indicators and tools are given below. You can adjust your trading strategy based on them.
Buy: 16.67%
Sell: 0%
Neutral: 83.33%
Buy: 50%
Sell: 50%
Neutral: 0%
| Header | Sell | Neutral | Buy | Action |
| Moving Averages |
50% |
0% |
50% |
Neutral |
| Oscillators |
0% |
83.33% |
16.67% |
Buy |
| Name | Value | Action |
| RSI(14) |
47.94 |
Neutral |
| Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) |
62.14 |
Neutral |
| Stochastic RSI Fast (3, 3, 14, 14) |
62.14 |
Neutral |
| Williams Percent Range (14) |
-59.27 |
Buy |
| CCI(20) |
-33.55 |
Neutral |
| Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28) |
47.72 |
Neutral |
| Period | Simple | Exponential |
| MA10 |
61.02 |
63.32 |
| MA20 |
68.03 |
65.89 |
| MA30 |
71.84 |
66.29 |
| MA50 |
67.04 |
63.45 |
| MA100 |
50.23 |
54.34 |
| MA200 |
37.49 |
43.43 |
| Pivot | Classic | Fibonacci | Camarilla | Woodie | Demark |
| Middle | 61.638333333333 | 61.638333333333 | 61.638333333333 | 64.2205 | 67.168 |
| S3 | - | 6.2203333333333 | 57.57905 | - | - |
| S2 | 6.2203333333333 | 27.390009333333 | 62.659033333333 | 8.8025 | - |
| S1 | 39.519666666667 | 40.468657333333 | 67.739016666667 | 44.684 | 50.579 |
| R1 | 94.937666666667 | 82.808009333333 | 77.898983333333 | 100.102 | 105.997 |
| R2 | 117.05633333333 | 95.886657333333 | 82.978966666667 | 119.6385 | - |
| R3 | 172.47433333333 | 117.05633333333 | 88.05895 | 155.52 | - |
Silver, as with most commodities, is considered a defense against inflation. But this is true when rapid price growth is accompanied by positive expectations. Precious metal prices often fall when a recession is anticipated.
US dollar fluctuations have a significant impact on silver prices. The stronger the dollar, the more pressure on the price. A weak dollar relative to other world currencies favors its growth.
Another important factor is fluctuations in the exchange rate of the most popular metal. Silver quotes quite often follow the dynamics of gold. But sometimes it happens with a noticeable time lag.
Half of the demand for silver is formed by industry. Accordingly, the price of the metal is growing on expectations of lower production levels. This can also happen in case of political conflicts.
But more often the deterioration of the geopolitical situation affects first of all the price of gold. And then, silver quotations are only indirectly affected.
The value of a troy ounce is inversely proportional to the Federal Reserve rate. The higher the rate, the more profitable risk-free assets - deposits and bonds. Therefore, investors are less interested in risky investments. In addition, there is a lower probability that the final profit will justify the risks.
As the pandemic demonstrated, lower production levels lead to higher prices. Many experts note that the industry is already experiencing a shortage of the metal. But there is no reason to believe that there will be an acute shortage of silver in the coming years.
The silver price chart is descending. There is no reason to believe that the trend will be reversed in the coming days. It is advisable to postpone the purchase of the asset.
The silver price forecast for the next 6-12 months is negative. There are reasons to expect further decrease of quotations. The asset is not recommended for purchase with an investment horizon of less than a year.
Long-term silver price forecasts are negative. The asset is not recommended for investments with a horizon of a year or more. Many of the analysts promise stagnation of quotations in a narrow range. There is an opinion that the cost of an ounce will fall below $20 in the next few years.
Experts say that in the future silver prices will be higher than the current ones. Many analysts believe that in 10 years, quotations will approach the $70-$80 threshold.
The average price quoted in the forecasts is $55. But the exact figure will depend on the inflation rate. The industry's demands for increased production will also have an impact.
Such a scenario is unlikely to happen. Few analysts predict a multiple of silver's value even on a decades-long horizon.
Silver quotes have exceeded this mark several times. There are reasons to assume that it will happen again.
This is very unlikely. Manufacturing accounts for half of the demand for silver. In recessionary periods, production declines. So demand for the metal will fall.
It is matter of time. This is likely to happen after a few decades due to inflation. There are also experts who claim that silver is now severely undervalued. They predict a rise in quotations above $100 already in the coming years.
No. He bought the metal in 1997 and held it until 2006, but then sold all the bullion. Since then, Buffett has not returned to investing in silver.
Such forecasts are out there. They are based on expectations of rapid industrial growth. However, this opinion is not shared by all experts.
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